Supply Chain Risk

Cargo theft in the US exceeds $15 billion in direct merchandize costs annually. Although a growing problem, federal enforcement efforts have been reduced since the September 11^th attacks; shifting the responsibility for supply chain security to the private sector most directly impacted by the threat.

Historically, increases in crime associated with increases in product costs are almost immediate. Within months, legal sales of consumer products plummet as theft, diversion and grey market sales increase. Accurate statistics are not available; however, estimates suggest that while less than 2% of cargo theft involves violence this rate is likely to increase. Theft of high value cargo in Europe increasingly is associated with violence, a trend that is expected to continue in the US. Experience in Europe suggests that security enhancements actually may increase the risk for violence as the “opportunity cost” incurred by criminals is countered with increasingly organized and violent attacks, including assault and kidnapping. A leading indicator of this expected trend, armored carriers in the US are seeing increases in violence against their drivers.

Prevent, deter, mitigate and respond more effectively. Reporting, collecting and compiling data are necessary but not sufficient to increasing security. Operationally relevant and actionable analysis moves beyond “counting” what happened in favor of meaningful, information based tactics, strategy, training and policy decisions in the applied security environment.

Comprehensive security programs frequently incorporate a layered approach that includes physical security and operations, with an overlay of intelligence and analysis. These intelligence and analysis functions are used to monitor, evaluate and characterize risk in support of fact based approaches to security tactics, strategy, training and policy. In this model, the intelligence and analysis capabilities are used to guide, and in many cases optimize the physical and operational security elements, while identifying emerging trends and patterns.

Ultimately, operationally relevant and actionable intelligence and analysis capabilities move the organization beyond “counting” incidents in favor of prevention, thwarting, mitigation and response. The ability to identify and characterize meaningful patterns and trends – the “when, where and what” – also supports information based tactics, strategy, training and policy decisions in the applied security environment, including the more efficient allocation of security resources. Simply "counting" incidents maintains a reactive security posture; whereas in-depth behavioral analysis coupled with predictive analytics moves the security professional in front of the crime, enabling information based proactive approaches.

While we cannot mitigate the risk to zero, information based approaches to prevention, thwarting and response can be used to change outcomes; reducing losses while increasing employee safety.

MC² Solutions, LLC specializes in the provision of professional research, analysis and training services to the public safety and security community. The company leverages internationally recognized expertise in predictive analysis methodologies and process, and experience-based knowledge of the operational environment to bring more science and less fiction to their clients’ most challenging problems.