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MC2 Solutions
"Just-in-Time" Policing Risk Based Deployment
supports the optimization of public safety resources and assets, including personnel. Similar to the “just-in-time”
supply chain analytics used by local home improvement stores to ensure that there are enough shovels and road salt on hand
in advance of an approaching winter storm, Risk Based Deployment has been demonstrated to effectively address the main goals
of police deployment: allocate police resources when and where they are needed to prevent or deter crime
through a strong police presence, and enable the ability to respond rapidly by proactively positioning resources when
and where they are likely to be needed in order to ensure a timely response. Ultimately, the incorporation
of meaningful, operationally relevant and actionable analysis into information based police tactics, strategy and policy promises
to increase public safety and change outcomes.
Doing More with Less: The Richmond New Year's Eve Initiative The Predictive Policing Model was tested in 2004 during the New Year’s Eve
Initiative.1 Under the leadership of Richmond Police Department Chief Andre’ Parker, Dr.
Colleen McCue and her team developed a “risk based” deployment plan for the eight-hour Initiative.
Using data from previous years, the Crime Analysis Team identified locations historically associated with increased
citizen complaints of random gunfire on New Year’s Eve. In addition, the Team identified areas associated
with recent reports of random gunfire for inclusion in the Initiative. Field Services Major David McCoy
then used these data to create a deployment plan, specifically targeting areas associated with increased random gunfire, both
historically on the holiday and recent activity. Using a “beat stacking” model, Major McCoy
allocated increased patrol to the areas expected to be associated with increased random gunfire.
The goals of the Initiative were two-fold. First, the deployment
plan was designed to prevent or thwart random gunfire by identifying those areas likely to be associated with increased random
gunfire and proactively deploying resources to this area, thereby creating a visible deterrent to crime through a strong police
presence. Second, by prepositioning assets, the proactively deployed units could respond more rapidly to
reports of random gunfire that did occur, increasing the likelihood of rapid response and arrest.
The
results supported both the prevention and response. During the New Year’s Eve Initiative, calls for
service for random gunfire were reduced by 47%, as compared to the previous year. Moreover, the number
of guns recovered during the Initiative was increased by 246%, including the recovery of six assault-type weapons, underscoring
the value of being in the “right place at the right time,” or “just-in-time” policing.
Review of the period leading up to the Initiative and immediately after revealed no noteworthy differences in random
gunfire complaints, further underscoring the specificity of the Initiative. Additional review of the resources
used to support the Initiative revealed an unexpected, but welcome benefit. The ability to anticipate crime
and specifically target resources in response resulted in the use of fewer resources. In fact, 50 fewer
officers were required than originally planned, resulting in a $15,000 savings in personnel costs alone during the eight-hour
Initiative. It is important to note that this savings does not include the additional costs associated
with crime, including investigation, arrest, prosecution, incarceration, and the incalculable costs to communities inundated
with crime.
The New Year’s Eve Initiative supported the value of Risk Based
Deployment by demonstrating that the ability to accurately anticipate the time, location and nature of crime was associated
with both crime prevention and rapid response. As a direct result of the Initiative, the community enjoyed
the benefits of reduced crime as they welcomed the New Year and those officers working during the Initiative were engaged
and active, truly making a difference in the community. Finally, the cost savings associated with using
a risk based deployment strategy supports the value of being able to accurately anticipate crime and target resources in response
to a specific threat. Together, these results underscore the value of the Predictive Policing Model
in changing outcomes in law enforcement.
MC2 Solutions, LLC specializes in the provision of professional research, analysis and training services to the public safety and security community. The company leverages internationally recognized expertise in predictive analysis methodologies and process, and experience-based knowledge of the operational environment to bring more science and less fiction to their clients’ most challenging problems. 1 McCue, C., Parker, A., McNulty, P.J. and McCoy, D. Doing
more with less: Data mining in police deployment decisions. Violent Crime Newsletter,
US Department of Justice, Spring 2004, 1, 4-5.
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